退耕户在补偿期结束后是否会复耕的研究是巩固退耕还林成果的重要内容。本文在综述国内外大量文献的基础上,采用陕西安康市5个区县农户的调查问卷数据,首先分析了退耕户家庭人口特征、生计状况以及对退耕还林政策的评价等;其次,构建了农户复耕意愿影响因素的Logistic模型,选取家庭粮食安全、退耕地特征以及区域特征等16个变量,对安康市5个区县1120个退耕户的复耕意愿进行了计量经济分析。结果表明,退耕户是否会复耕并非仅取决于复耕前后成本一收益的简单分析,还需考虑其他因素,如家庭粮食安全水平;此外,户主年龄,尤其是退耕地特征以及区域经济发展情况也对退耕户的复耕决策有重要的影响。由此,保障农户家庭粮食安全,针对性地激励和扶持高复耕风险农户,引导发展区域特色产业对降低农户复耕意愿、保证退耕还林工程可持续发展有着重要的意义。
The sustainability of the Sloping Land Conversion Program (SLCP) depends on rural participants' post-program land use plans. Their willingness for land reconversion has been found to be affected by economic, social and demographic factors, but little is known about the effects of food security levels, enrolled land features and regional heterogeneity. On the basis of previous studies and using survey data from five counties in the Ankang mountainous area, I first analyzed demographic features, livelihood status and SLCP participants' attitudes towards the policy. Then, I introduced additional factors such as food security levels, enrolled land features and regional factors into a model of rural household's willingness for land conversion. Rural household decisions about land reconversion not only depend on cost-benefit analysis, but also on food security. Those with lower food security, enrolled land of higher quality and a younger head of household tend to have a stronger willingness towards land reconversion. The development of the regional economy affects rural households' decisions on land use, as it may offer more employment opportunities and transform livelihoods. Hence, in order to reduce the probability of land reconversion and maintain conservation standards, more attention should be paid to ensuring rural households' food security, motivating households at high risk of land reconversion and developing industries with regional features.