中文摘要：

在界定业绩预告形式上及实质上可靠性的基础上,实证研究披露政策对业绩预告可靠性选择的影响。结果发现,强制性披露政策下业绩预告形式上的可靠性显著高于自愿性披露政策下的情形,但其实质上的可靠性并不高于自愿性披露政策下的情形。结合消息性质的进一步检验发现：不同性质消息下的强制性披露政策的业绩预告形式上的可靠性均显著高于自愿性披露政策下的情形;对于坏消息的业绩预告,其实质上的可靠性显著低于自愿性披露下的情形。

英文摘要：

Based on the definition of seeming reliability and essential reliability of earnings forecast, this paper empirically studies the impact of the disclosure policy on the choice of forecast reliability. The study show s that the seeming reliability is higher under the mandatory policy than under the voluntary policy,but the essential reliability under the mandatory policy is not higher than under the voluntary policy. Taking the character of new s into account,the paper find that the seeming reliability is higher under the mandatory policy than under the voluntary policy for different new s,but the essential reliability is significantly low er under the mandatory policy than under the voluntary policy for bad new s forecast.