本文选用2003-2012年人口经济压力相关指标,运用动态因子分析和空间自相关分析方法对我国人口经济压力进行研究。结果表明:第一,2003-2012年间,西藏、贵州、宁夏、云南、青海等经济欠发达地区是我国人口经济压力最大的地区,而北京市、上海市、天津市、江苏省等经济发达地区是我国人口经济压力最小的地区,表明我国人口经济压力存在明显的空间聚集特征;第二,人口经济压力的影响因素:人口生活水平压力>人口增长压力>人口就业和素质压力,表明人口经济压力与经济发展程度存在非常显著的相关性,因此大力发展经济是减小地区人口经济压力的主要途径之一。落后地区要注重控制人口增长的同时,改变经济增长方式,提高资源利用效率,以达到人口与经济规模协调发展;第三,自2003年以来,我国人口经济压力差异呈现不断扩大趋势,表明我国省域贫富差距越来越大,因此缩小地区间的贫富差异也是一个缓解我国人口经济压力差距过大的主要手段之一。
This paper selected relevant data and used Dynamic Factor Analysis and spatial autocorrelation to study the population pressure of 31 province in the year of 2003-2012 in China,Firstly,we use dynamic factor analysis to estimates the index of population pressure and based on the composite scores and Arcgis software divided the population pressure of China into four levels,then it reflect the spatial distribution pattern of population pressure. Secondly,by calculating the spatial auto-correlation coefficient of population pressure,we found a strong spatial autocorrelation of population pressure. All of the falling behind economic development of China fall into the region high-high areas which is reflect they are large population pressure area and behind economic development of China fall into the high-high areas,and the economic developed of China fall into the low-low areas which is indicated they are the small population pressure area.