利用关中平原1960-2010年逐月降水资料,通过Z指数确定了该地区的旱涝等级及发生年份,采用频率分析法分析太阳黑子极值年附近的旱涝特征,运用Morlet小波分析技术,对关中平原近51年来降水Z指数与太阳黑子的小波系数变化进行分析。结果表明:(1)关中平原近51年的旱涝发生频率基本相等,在90年代之后旱灾发生频率明显高于涝灾发生频率。(2)太阳黑子数与关中平原旱涝在整个60年代呈现反相关关系;自70年代开始至今,两者基本呈现正相关关系,且旱涝变化较太阳黑子数目的活动存在2年左右的"滞后期"。(3)关中平原在太阳黑子m年附近出现灾害的概率明显高于太阳黑子M年,且太阳黑子m年附近发生重、大旱灾的频率要高于重、大涝灾的频率。(4)太阳黑子与旱涝指数在9-12年周期处存在对应关系,说明太阳黑子变化对关中平原的旱涝有一定影响。
Based on the 1960 -2010 meteorological data of Guanzhonog Plain, We used Z index to make sure the level of drought and flood in the research region and the occurrence year, and using frequency analysis method analyzed the characteristic of drought and flood in the sunspot extremum. Morlet wavelet analysis was conducted to analyze the change of the Z index and the sunspot. The results showed that : ( 1 ) The frequency of drought and flood in the past 51 years occurred in the Guanzhong Plain was basic equal, the drought occurrence was more fre- quency than the flood after 90s. (2) The sunspot number and drought and flood of Guanzhong Plain showed nega- tive relationship through 60s, since the 1970s to the present, the two factors showed the positive relationship. ( 3 ) The frequency of drought and flood happened in m year was higher than that in M year in Guanzhoug Plain, and the drought frequency occurred in the sunspot m year was higher than the flood frequency. (4)There was a relationship between the drought and flood cycle and sunspot cycle in 9 -12years, so the change of sunspot num- ber influenced the drought and flood in the Guanzhong plain.