中文摘要：

资源型城市产业转型是学术界普遍关注的一个热点问题。基于2002年和2012年唐山市投入产出数据，采用增长态归因矩阵模型和Probit模型，研究了唐山市分行业总体的结构性增长和相关影响因素。结果表明：2002—2012年唐山市煤炭采选业和金属冶炼及压延业总体上都没有呈现结构性增长，基本摆脱了对煤炭和钢铁的高度依赖；具有一定技术含量的制造业如专用设备制造业、仪器仪表及文化办公用机械制造业、信息传输软件和信息技术服务业总体呈现结构性增长，呈现出产业转型的趋势；产业总体呈现结构性增长的影响因素中，影响力系数呈现负向影响，感应度系数、产业增加值占GDP比重和产业直接增加值率则呈现正向影响。因此，资源型城市产业转型需要提高直接增加值率，更加关注提升与下游产业的关联效应。

英文摘要：

Industrial transformation is a hot topic for resource-based cities. Based on the input- output table of Tangshan in 2002 and 2012, the whole structural increase of industries in Tangshan and their impact factors are analyzed by the increasing causative matrix and probit model. The results show that, there was not a structural increase in the sector of coal mining and processing and the sector of metal smelting and pressing from 2002 to 2012. Tangshan has been out of the development mode with the high dependency on coal and steel. Some sectors have experienced a structural increase characterized by the high technology, such as special equipment, instrumentation and cultural office machinery manufacturing, as well as information transmission software and information technology services. All of the indications illustrate that Tangshan has shown a trend of industrial transformation. As for the impact factors of industrial structural increase, it is found that the industrial influence coefficient has a negative effect, while the industrial sensitivity coefficient, GDP proportion of industrial value added, and industrial direct value added ratio have positive effects. Finally, it is helpful to improve the ratio of direct value added and linkages with downstream industries for the industrial transformation of the resource-based cities.