以山西省16个主要入境旅游客源市场为研究对象,以入境旅游人数为衡量客源市场规模的基础指标。综合运用竞争态、马尔科夫转移概率矩阵和亲景度等方法.通过对比分析2002—2006年和2007-2011年两个时间断面内主要客源市场的竞争态和亲景度特征,研究了山西省入境旅游客源市场结构的演变趋势。结果显示:山西省入境旅游客源市场的空间结构趋于分散:中国香港、中国澳门、中国台湾、美国、法国、日本和德国是山西省最重要的容源市场:中国香港、韩国和新加坡的市场潜力巨大,应该作为培育重点;客源市场在不同竞争态类型间的转移以在优势竞争态内部和劣势竞争态内部的转移为主;处于劣势竞争态的客源市场的类型变动是市场竞争态波动的主要原因。
Taking 16 major inbound tourism generating market in Shanxi province as the case study for this research, taking tourist arrivals as the basic index to measure the scale of generating markets, applying competition state, preference scale, narkov transition matrix etc., by contrasting the characteristic of major generating markets competition state and preference scale during 2002-2006 to that during 2007-2011, researched the evolution trend of inbound tourism generating markets' structure in Shanxi province. The results shows that: the spatial structure of inbound tourism generating market tended to disperse; Hong Kong, naeau, Taiwan, America, France, Japan and Germany were the most important generating markets of Shanxi province; Hong Kong, Korea and Singapore which have huge potential for development should be paid special attention; transferring among internal advantage competition states and internal disadvantage competition states were the major forms that generating tourism markets transfer among different types of competition states; and the generating markets which in disadvantage competition states transferring among different types of competition states was the main reason for the fluctuation of competition states.