中文摘要：

为了研究洞庭湖的演化变迁规律,利用不同历史时期的洞庭湖水域分布图及近几十年的遥感图像及地形图资料,采用GIS图形图像处理和人机交互式解译信息提取方法,获得了近3 000 a以来22个时期的洞庭湖水域面积变化信息。根据数据分布规律,运用数理统计分析方法建立了洞庭湖演化变迁遥感监测数学模型,并对洞庭湖未来发展变化趋势及其对洞庭湖区未来生态环境的影响进行了分析预测。研究结果表明,按照该数学模型计算,再过250 a洞庭湖将消亡。

英文摘要：

To understand the rule of evolution of the Dongting Lake,the authors,by using the waters distribution maps in different historical periods and the remote sensing data as well as topographic data obtained in the past decades and applying GIS graphic- image processing and man- computer interactive information extraction method,obtained information scale of water area change in 22 different periods of the Dongting Lake. According to the law of data distribution,the authors established the mathematical model of the Dongting Lake basin evolution on the basis of mathematical statistics analysis method. The future development trend and its influence on the future ecological environment of the Dongting Lake were analyzed and predicted. The research results show that the Dongting Lake will die out in 250 years according to the mathematical model calculation.