中文摘要：

以常州市中心城区为研究区,探索规划基本农田信息对SLEUTH模型校准过程产生的作用,在此基础上对常州市中心城区的城市扩张进行预测.采用一组对比试验：排除层E1不包含规划基本农田信息,排除层E2包含规划基本农田信息,限制城市发展.试验结果表明,排除层的设计影响模型的校准过程,在研究区内将规划基本农田信息纳入排除层可以有效提高模型校准精度,从而更好地预测常州市中心城区未来城市扩张情况.

英文摘要：

Taking Changzhou downtown as a case study,this paper explored the impacts that basic farmland did on the process of SLEUTH model calibration. Finally the urban growth of Changzhou downtown was predicted. In the research, a eomparative test was adopted to investigate the effects that basic farmland did on the SLEUTH model calibration. The excluded layer E1 did not contain any information of basic farmland. On the contrary, the basic farmland was selected to limit the urban development in the excluded layer E2. A comparison of the results obtained by these two methods indicated that the design of excluded layer im- pacted the model calibration process indeed. The inclusion of basic farmland information in the excluded layer can effectively im- prove the calibration accuracy of the model. Moreover, it also made a contribution to forecast the urban growth of Changzhou downtown.