中文摘要：

利用RS与GIS技术获取常州市1995、2000、2005年3个年份的土地利用空间分布,选取7个景观指数对其进行景观格局分析,并结合生态足迹模型计算相应年份的生态承载力,运用SPSS统计分析软件计算景观指数同生态承载力的皮尔逊相关系数,根据生态承载力动态变化和空间变异状况,结合生态盈亏情况和人均生态协调系数,对常州市可持续发展状况进行评价。结果表明：常州市土地利用类型变化在此10年间趋势比较稳定,建筑用地增加9.69%,其他用地减少10.12%,林地增加8.54%,农田减少6.47%;3个年份的人均生态承载力不断下降,分别为0.239 2、0.234 7、0.226 3 hm2/人;整体上,武进区和新北区的生态承载力较高,戚墅堰区最低;生态承载力与最大斑块指数、聚集度指数呈现显著正相关关系,与斑块密度间呈现显著负相关关系;3个年份的人均生态赤字分别为-0.822 1、-1.091 6、-1.488 7,人均生态协调度分别为1.195 4、1.158 9、1.122 2。

英文摘要：

The land use information in Changzhou city for 1995,2000 and 2005 was derived from remote sensing coupled with GIS techniques in this paper.The landscape patterns were analyzed employing the selected 7 landscape indices,and the ecological carrying capacity was calculated using the ecological footprint model,Pearson correlation coefficient between the landscape patterns and the ecological carrying capacity via the package of SPSS were also involved in the current analysis.Ultimately,an assessment of the sustainable development status of Changzhou was made according to the dynamic ecological capacity and the ecological deficit and surplus.Results showed that the trends of land use almost remained stable over the period from 1995 to 2005.The changes were mainly built up area（increased 9.69%）,other land（decreased 10.12%）,forest（increased 8.54%） and farmland（decreased 6.47%）.The ecological capacity of 1995、2000 and 2005 were 0.239 2,0.234 7,0.226 3 hm2/cap respectively.In all city ecological capacity,the ecological capacity of the Wujin and Xinbei district were higher than other districts relatively,and that of the Qishuyan district was the lowest.Ecological capacity had a significantly positive correlation with the Maximum Patches Index,Aggregation Index,and an obvious negative correlation with the patches density.The per capita ecological deficit of three years were-0.822 1,-1.091 6,1.488 7,respectively,and the ecological coordination degree of each person of three years was 1.195 4,1.158 9,1.122 2.The driving factors of regional ecological capacity could be analyzed and evaluated more precisely based on the intrinsic relationship between landscape pattern and ecological capacity,which provided a new method and idea for the research of ecological capacity.