中文摘要：

针对商品零售价格指数的变化特点，提出了一种基于熵权的Markov链预测分析方法。首先用概率均分法对样本数据进行状态等级划分，其次对历史年份商品零售价格指数的状态进行统计，建立不同步长的Markov链状态转移概率矩阵，然后用熵权Markov链分析模型对商品零售价格指数进行预测。最后，通过一个实例说明了该方法的有效性。

英文摘要：

Aimed at the feature of commodities＇ retail price index, this paper puts forward a forecasting Markov chain method based on entropy right. Firstly, it divides the sample data into different state by probability average method ; secondly, it collects the state and establishes the transition probability matrix of different length of strides; thirdly, it forecasts commodities＇retail price index by Markov chain model; finally, it proves the validity of this method by an empirical case.