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中文摘要：
在系统分析研究区地质及水文地质条件的基础上，确定了研究区范围和边界条件，借助GIS技术和FEFLOW建立了研究区地下水系统概念模型和数学模型及相应的地下水系统数值模型．用2004-2005年地下水动态观测井的地下水动态观测资料对数值模型进行了识别和率定，运用识别后的模型对现状水平年（2004年）的地下水系统进行了模拟与分析．结果表明：建立的模型能够较好地反应研究区水文地质空间分布及组合方式，具有一定的代表性，可以用于数值模拟计算．选择2005年为预测初始时间，2015年为终止时间，利用模型对研究区进行预测．在模型运行10年后，研究区北部区域地下水位上升3—5m，中部区域的上升5—10m，南部区域的上升10-15m．分析模拟区域地下水上升范围，为今后实施排水措施奠定了一定的技术基础，也为排水措施的选址提供了一定的依据．
英文摘要：
Based on the analysis of the geological and hydrogeological conditions, the scope of the research area and the boundary conditions were determined and the conceptual model, mathematical model and numerical model of the groundwater system in the research area were constructed with the help of GIS technology and FEFLOW software. Meanwhile, the numerical model was calibrated with the observed dynamic level of groundwater from 2004 to 2005, and the groundwater system at present （in 2004） simulated and analyzed by using the calibrated model. The results confirmed that the established model could well reflect the distribution and combination of the hydrogeological conditions and could be used to create a numerical simulation. We selected 2005 as the beginning year and 2015 as the ending year, and used the model to forecast the future conditions in the research area. After the model has run for ten years, the groundwater level would rise 3-5 m in the north section, 5-10 m in the central section and 10-15 m in the south section. Through an analyis of the rising range of groundwater level of the research area, the technology basis was established to actualize the measure of drainage for future and provide a basis for selecting the location for measuring the drainage.
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