中文摘要：

当前研究认为我国贸易顺差来源于国内实际因素,至于是何种实际因素却存在分歧。本文建立的贸易收支决定模型认为,本国供给相对上升,本国需求相对下降,本国供给相对于本国需求过剩,是我国贸易顺差形成的根本原因。根据模型还可知,全球经济危机虽然导致我国进出口大幅下降,但对我国贸易顺差的作用相对较小;人民币升值对本国相对需求影响较小,但是对本国相对供给影响较大,如果人民币大幅度升值,我国大部分劳动密集型产业则会丧失比较优势,我国贸易顺差因此而出现拐点。

英文摘要：

Current researches consider that Chinese trade surplus comes from the domestic real factors,but there is no agreement on which kind of real factors. The result drew from the trade balance determination model built in this paper shows that Chinese trade surplus comes from the rising domestic supply and the dropping domestic demand. It also shows that the effect of global crisis on the trade surplus is small but that of appreciation of RMB is great. If RMB exchange rate appreciates by a great amount,the turning point of Chinese trade surplus may appear.