中文摘要：

从洪水预报中定量降水预报应用进展、面向洪水预报的流域水文模型研究进展、气象水文耦合预报不确定性研究进展三个方面系统介绍气象水文耦合的洪水预报研究进展。研究指出，融合预报员预报的格点化定量降水预报技术是提高面向洪水预报的流域降水预报精度的重要方法，中尺度集合预报技术是提升流域局地性强降水预报能力的主要途径；概念性与物理性相结合的分布式水文模型是面向洪水预报的流域水文模型发展方向；水文集合预报是考虑气象水文单向耦合预报不确定性有效解决技术，贝叶斯系列模型可为分析气象水文预报不确定性提供重要的借鉴意义。

英文摘要：

A review of flood forecasting hydro-meteorological forecast technology is presented with application of watershed quantitative precipitation forecasts in flood forecasting, hydrological model, and uncertainty analysis of hydro-meteorological forecasting. The results show that grid-based watershed quantitative precipitation forecasting with forecasters ＇ forecasts is an important means of improving the accuracy of watershed quantitative precipitation forecasting in flood forecasting operations, and regional ensemble weather prediction modeling is the main method to improve local heavy precipitation forecasting. The dis- tributed hydrological model, based on control volume method with coupling conceptual runoff generation module and physical routing module, is the developing direction of hydrological model for flood forecasting. Hydrological ensemble prediction is the most popular methods for the uncertainty analysis of hydrometeorological forecasts and the models based on Bayesian theory are one of the most effective solutions to the foreast uncertainty.