中文摘要：

通过分析肿瘤放疗及并发症随访数据,拟合正常组织并发症概率（NTCP）模型参数,并由此预测并发症发病率、优化放疗方案、揭示正常组织放射生物学特性,是肿瘤放射生物物理学近期的研究热点.综述相关文献中提出的6种NTCP模型,并讨论建模及对比模型预测能力的方法;然后介绍近年来提出的几种改进后的NTCP模型,以及几种新的并发症预测技术.从开展临床应用的角度,对NTCP模型的研究现状、存在的问题和发展趋势做概括和总结,就NTCP模型在个体化放疗中的应用等问题进行讨论和展望.

英文摘要：

To predict the probability of radiotherapy complications, optimize radiotherapy plans and reveal the radio-biological characteristics by normal tissue complication probability （NTCP） models are becoming important issues in the radiation oncology field recently. All of them can be achieved by identifying the NTCP model parameters with clinical and follow-up data. In this work, six NTCP models from literatures, model identification and comparison methods were summarized; three improved NTCP models and some other complication predictive methods were introduced as well. Issues of NTCP in individual radiotherapy were discussed and proposed from the clinical application point of view.