中文摘要：

文章应用基于可信性理论的模糊潮流计算方法建立了输电网短期规划模型及其算法：首先根据当前电网负载水平评估结果采用灵敏度技术自动建立候选线路集；然后从候选线路集中选出线路形成不同的规划方案，建立输电网短期规划优化模型：最后用模糊潮流算法分析预想规划网架的运行性能，并通过遗传算法求解得到优化方案。算例分析证明了该模型与算法的有效性。文章的研究成果还可扩展应用于多重模糊因素共同作用下的电网规划。文章的模型与算法已在能量管理系统（energy management system，EMS）平台上实现，借助EMS系统提供的精确电网模型以及大量完整的电网运行数据，其规划结果的可信度得到了提高。

英文摘要：

By use of credibility theory based fuzzy power flow algorithm, a short-term planning model for transmisison network and corresponding algorithm are built. At first, according to the evaluation results of current power network load level a candidate line set is automatically established by sensitivity technology; then various planning schemes are formed by selecting lines from the candidate line set to build optimization model for power network short-term planning; and then, by use of fuzzy power flow algorithm the operation performance of the presupposed planned network is anlayzed and an optimal scheme can be obtained by genetic algorithm （GA）; finally, the IEEE14 test system is used to illuminate the validity of this model. The research results of this paper can be expanded to the application in power network planning under the corporate impacts of multiple fuzzy factors. The model and algorithm proposed in this paper has been implemented on the EMS platform, by means of the accurate power network model offered by EMS and plenty of intact power network operation data, the credibility of planning result is improved.