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Dependence between stock returns and investor sentiment in Chinese markets: A copula approach
  • ISSN号:1009-6124
  • 期刊名称:Journal of Systems Science and Complexity
  • 时间:2012.6
  • 页码:529-548
  • 分类:O212.4[理学—概率论与数理统计;理学—数学] F832.51[经济管理—金融学]
  • 作者机构:[1]Department of Management Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China, School of Business,Un~iversity of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026,-China.Kin Keun~ LAI, [2]Department of Management Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China., [3]Schoolof Business,University of Svience and Technology of China,Hefei230026,China
  • 相关基金:This research is suported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No,70821001.
  • 相关项目:分布系统的协调优化与风险管理
中文摘要:

用最新打开的存货的数据,做贸易作为投资者情绪索引的一个代理在中国说明,作者与 Hansens 雇用变化时间的 copula-GARCH 模特儿调查在投资者情绪和股票回来之间的动态依赖的扭曲的 Student-t 革新。在投资者情绪的移动断然 asymptotically 被相关到存货的实验调查结果表演在股票在中国出售的一个股票市场和 B 处于极端值状况回来,那是说,当投资者变得更行情看涨时,存货更定价愿望增加(减少)( 熊市) 。另外,结果证明在投资者情绪和股票回来之间的依赖是变化时间的,它意味着传统的皮尔森关联不基于正常分发是足够描述在证券市场行为和投资者行为之间的关系。

英文摘要:

Using data of newly opened stock trading accounts in China as a proxy of investor sentiment index, the authors employ the time-varying copula-GARCH model with Hansen's skewed Student-t innovations to investigate the dynamic dependence between investor sentiment and stock returns. The empirical findings show that shifts in investor sentiment are asymptotically positively correlated to stock returns in extreme value situations in both A shares market and B shares market in China, that is to say, stock prices will increase (decrease) more when investors become more bullish (bearish). Also, results show that the dependence between investor sentiment and stock returns is time-varying, which means that the traditional Pearson's correlation based on normal distribution is not enough to describe the relationship between stock market behavior and investor behavior.

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期刊信息
  • 《系统科学与复杂性学报:英文版》
  • 主管单位:中国科学院
  • 主办单位:中国科学院系统科学研究所
  • 主编:
  • 地址:北京东黄城根北街16号
  • 邮编:100080
  • 邮箱:
  • 电话:010-62541831 62541834
  • 国际标准刊号:ISSN:1009-6124
  • 国内统一刊号:ISSN:11-4543/O1
  • 邮发代号:82-545
  • 获奖情况:
  • 国内外数据库收录:
  • 俄罗斯文摘杂志,美国数学评论(网络版),德国数学文摘,荷兰文摘与引文数据库,美国工程索引,美国科学引文索引(扩展库),英国科学文摘数据库
  • 被引量:125