用最新打开的存货的数据,做贸易作为投资者情绪索引的一个代理在中国说明,作者与 Hansens 雇用变化时间的 copula-GARCH 模特儿调查在投资者情绪和股票回来之间的动态依赖的扭曲的 Student-t 革新。在投资者情绪的移动断然 asymptotically 被相关到存货的实验调查结果表演在股票在中国出售的一个股票市场和 B 处于极端值状况回来,那是说,当投资者变得更行情看涨时,存货更定价愿望增加(减少)( 熊市) 。另外,结果证明在投资者情绪和股票回来之间的依赖是变化时间的,它意味着传统的皮尔森关联不基于正常分发是足够描述在证券市场行为和投资者行为之间的关系。
Using data of newly opened stock trading accounts in China as a proxy of investor sentiment index, the authors employ the time-varying copula-GARCH model with Hansen's skewed Student-t innovations to investigate the dynamic dependence between investor sentiment and stock returns. The empirical findings show that shifts in investor sentiment are asymptotically positively correlated to stock returns in extreme value situations in both A shares market and B shares market in China, that is to say, stock prices will increase (decrease) more when investors become more bullish (bearish). Also, results show that the dependence between investor sentiment and stock returns is time-varying, which means that the traditional Pearson's correlation based on normal distribution is not enough to describe the relationship between stock market behavior and investor behavior.