根据邓宁的国际投资周期理论(即IDP理论),随着一国经济的增长,该国将从FDI的净流入国转变为净流出国。近几年来我国对外投资有加速增长的趋势,据估计,2010年将达1500亿美元,与我国同期将吸收的外资规模相当。这是否意味着我国已经接近对外投资超过吸收外资的拐点?是由于金融危机短期影响而出现的偶然现象还是体现了我国经济增长的长期趋势?通过对我国对外投资加速增长因素的分析可以得出结论:我国目前正趋近这一拐点。我国对外开放已经进入一个新阶段:无论从经济发展还是从企业成长的阶段来看,对外投资与企业国际化愈发重要,我国应将其摆在与利用外资同等重要的地位,同时在战略和政策上注重利用外资与对外投资的协调发展。
Dunning' investment development path theory proves that a country will turn from negative net outward FDI to positive net outward FDI with its economic development.China' outward FDI has an accelerating increasing trend recendy and will reach US$150 billion in 2010,which is around the same amount of inward FDI in the same period.Does it mean that China' outward FDI will arrive at a new stage? Is it accidental or inevitable? Since China is going into the key transitional period of the outward FDI development and a new stage in carrying out opening policy,China s outward FDI becomes more and more important,reaching to the same level as the inward FDI,so strategically,we shall coordinate the development between the inward and outwards FDI.