中文摘要：

鉴于航道通航环境安全评价的模糊性和随机性,结合集值统计法和灰色模糊理论,建立航道通航环境安全评价模型。在综合分析航道通航环境安全影响因素的基础上,建立了由自然环境、航道条件、交通环境3类一级指标及12项二级指标所组成的航道通航环境安全评价指标体系。该模型利用集值统计确定各个评价指标的权重;通过确定评价样本矩阵,实现对航道通航环境场景的初步构建;利用灰色模糊综合评价法,量化评估航道通航环境安全等级。以广东坭洲头航道为例进行实例分析,结果表明,基于集值统计和灰色模糊理论的安全评价方法计算简单,评价结果客观、准确,便于实际应用。

英文摘要：

The given paper is aimed at presenting a new waterway navigation safety evaluation model based on the centralized statistical method and the grey fuzzy theory.Based on the analysis of the characteristic features of the waterway navigation,we have worked out a safety evaluation model based on the analysis and investigation of the related factors,such as the factors of natural environment,the waterway environment,and the traffic and transportation environmental conditions.In hoping to make the evaluation results more accurate and reliable,we have taken the 3 evaluation indexes as the primary indexical level and the other 12 evaluation indexes as the secondary indexical level.What is more,to heighten the applicability of the model,we have managed to combine the centralized statistical method with the fuzzy grey theory for the said purpose.On the other hand,to reduce the obscure and indefinite description and statement,the centralized statistical method has also been turned to calculate the weights of each evaluation index.Then,the aforementioned grey fuzzy model has also been employed to evaluate the waterway navigation safety levels by bringing the three steps forward from the grey fuzzy theory.That is to say,first of all,all the evaluation indexes of the secondary level of the index system have been classified by the experts concerned.Secondly,the grey evaluation coefficients have been worked out by the established whitening functions.And,thirdly,we have established a grey evaluation sampling matrix,so as to get the results of the primary evaluation indexes multiplied by the weight of the evaluation indexes and the corresponding sample matrix.And,eventually,we have obtained the final evaluation results through repetitive calculation and evaluation based on the maximum membership grade and the determination of the safety levels.Thus,we have established and proposed a comprehensive method by using the above said centralized statistical method and the grey fuzzy theory in response to the need for the evaluation of th