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中文摘要：
为有效阐释和分析复杂装备事故层次耦合机理,采用层次全息模型（HHM）从危害故障、操控失误、危险特性和致命环境4个维度综合辨识事故危险因素及关系。探讨复杂装备面向任务剖面的事故危险因素层次耦合效应。从耦合层次维和危险状态时序维,构建复杂装备事故演化涌现的3层次耦合网络模型（TCNAM）。分别定义耦合度、事故链、危险熵、事故涌现等概念。综合运用熵、灰色模型、突变论等理论,将复杂装备事故层次耦合网络模型形式化。结果表明,复杂装备事故是多危险因素由微观向宏观跨层次耦合的结果,其演化涌现定量分析应以多个非线性理论模型为核心。
英文摘要：
To describe and analyse effectively the hierarchical coupling mechanism of complex materiel system accident, materiel hazard factors were identified based on HHM, from four dimensions of critical fault hazard, human error, hazardous attribute fatal environment. Mission profile oriented hierarchical cou- pling effect was discussed. A three hierarchical coupling network model was built from the dimensions of coupling hierarchy and hazard state time series. Related conceptions, including coupling degree, accident chain, hazard entropy, accident emergence, etc, were proposed. On base of this, to improve the description ability of multi-hierarchy accident model, formal modeling for materiel accident hierarchical coupling network was made comprehensive using entropy, grey model and catastrophe theory. This study indicates that complex materiel system accidents are result of multi-hazard factors coupling by cross hierarchy from micro to macro,its evolution ＆ emergence quzntitative analysis should take multi-nonlinear theory as core.
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