中文摘要：

通过对城市水安全内涵的剖析和系统分析,将城市水安全系统分为支持子系统、协调子系统和防洪子系统,建立了逻辑清晰、层次分明的评价指标体系,并选用层次分析法确定了各层次指标的权重。在分析指标变化对城市水安全的影响规律的基础上,借鉴边际效益递减原理,建立了一种新的指标评价方法与模型。利用所确立的评价方法,对昆明城市水安全的现状及趋势进行了评价与预测,其得分为0.574,处于＂不安全＂状态,且有恶化趋势。该评价结果与实际基本相符,表明该方法体系有效、可靠,可用于城市水安全的评价研究。

英文摘要：

Based on the connotation and system analysis,the urban water safety system was divided into three subsystems,including the support subsystem,the coordinate subsystem and the flood control subsystem.The evaluation index system with clearly logic and hierarchy was built,and the weight of each hierarchy was confirmed by the analytical hierarchy process（AHP）.A new index evaluation method and model was established based on the effect analysis of the index change to the urban water safety and the law of diminishing marginal utility.The current situation of urban water safety and its trend in the Kunming City was evaluated and predicted by the new evaluation method.The result shows that the score is 0.574（full score is 1）,which means that the city is in an unsafe status,and the situation is getting more serious.The evaluated result is in good agreement with the true situation of Kunming City,and verifies the scientific and reliability of the evaluation method.