近年来,国际大宗商品市场出现了金融化问题,波动频仍的商品价格影响着中国经济发展和产业结构调整。在此背景下。本文探讨了美国股票指数是否以及如何影响中国大宗商品现货价格波动。除价格发现功能外。期货市场具有金融传导功能。股票指数通过跨市交易影响期货定价,期货市场通过库存和预期等渠道影响现货定价。本文使用AVGM—BEKK计量模型,实证分析了2007—2013年中国铜、黄金、棉花和白糖四种大宗商品现货价格与中国和美国股票指数之间的引导关系及相关程度。研究发现.股票指数是中国商品现货价格收益率和波动率的格兰杰原因。较之沪深300股票指数.标准普尔500股票指数对中国商品现货价格的影响更为严重和持久。中国大宗商品定价不仅存在金融化问题,而且出现了美国化问题。发展不足的国内期货市场成为美国金融因素影响中国大宗商品现货定价的渠道.而中国政府的价格干预能够影响金融交易者预期。为此。发展期货市场和加强政府监管.有助于中国应对大宗商品现货定价的金融化和美国化问题。
The international market of bulk commodities has been financialized in recent years and the volatility of spot commodities prices influences China's economic development and industrial restructuring. In this context, this paper examines whether and how the American stock indices take influence on the price changes of the China's domestic bulk commodities. The futures markets do not only work on price discovery, but also on financial transmission. Stock indices influence futures pricing by cross-market trading and the futures markets influence spot pricing via warehouse stocks and expectations. Using the AVGM-BEKK model to examine the daily data from 2007 to 2013, we analyze the relation between stock indices and the Chinese domestic commodities such as copper, gold, cotton, and sugar. We find that stock indices significantly influence the spot prices as the Granger causality. The influence of the S&P 500 index on the Chinese spot pricing is more profound than the Chinese Hushen 300 index. There is not only financialization, but also Americanization in the Chinese commodity markets. The American financial factors influence spot pricing of Chinese domestic commodities through the underdeveloped futures markets, but the price intervention of the government interferes with speculators" expectations. We argue that developing the domestic futures markets and improving government regulation help to address the issues of financialization and Americanization of bulk commodities' spot pricing.