中文摘要：

本文以中国花卉苗木产业为研究对象，在企业异质性模型的框架下，将生产效率、固定贸易成本、相对偏远指数等变量引入到传统引力模型中，同时对贸易零值问题进行了重点讨论，最终选择了泊松伪极大似然估计法（ PPML）对中国花卉苗木产业出口影响因素进行实证分析。实证结果表明，中国花卉苗木种植面积，进口国GDP以及两国之间的地理距离等传统变量对中国花卉苗木出口具有显著的影响，其中进口国需求能力对我国花卉苗木的出口弹性更大。贸易潜力测算结果表明，发展中国家是我国花卉苗木产品未来出口的重要增长点。

英文摘要：

Taking China’s Flower Seedling industry as a example, the thesis take production efficiency、fixed trade costs、relatively remote index as variables into the traditional gravity model according to the theory of the Heterogeneity of Firms, analysed the international trade flow with zero observations, choose the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood （ PPML） estimator to do an empirical analysis about factors affect the export of China’s Flower Seedling indus-try. According to the results, traditional variables as the production acreage , the import nation’s GDP and the distance between two countries have significant influence on China’s export, and the import nation’s demand ability had bigger in-fluence on China’s export elasticity. The calculation result about trade potential showed that the markets of developing countries were future growth markets of China’s export .