中文摘要：

应用人为因素分析和分类系统框架对导致事故发生的人为因素进行贝叶斯分析。首先将事故伤亡的严重程度分级，根据水电工程施工的特点确定框架的应用形式，对每种因素进行统计并作初步分析。接着运用实证贝叶斯方法，研究施工事故引发的不同层次的人员伤亡概率问题。研究表明，施工人员判定失误，隐患未整改，安全监管不善是最易引发严重事故的前三个因素。研究结果对于指导施工危险源辨识与评价工作具有实际意义。

英文摘要：

This study applies a framework of human factors analysis and classification system （HFACS） to a preliminary analysis of the human factors that result in engineering construction accidents. We established the grades of accidents injuring, determined how to apply the framework considering the characteristics of water resources and hydropower engineering construction, and obtained the statistics of all the human factors. The results reveal three major factors that may directly cause severe accidents, i.e. construction workers＇ judgment errors, hidden dangers not yet corrected, and inadequate safety supervision. The results would be instructive to classification and evaluation of construction hazards.