中文摘要：

利用时间序列模型、土地利用类型的相对变化率、灰色系统动态模型、关联分析，研究了咸宁市城镇用地时空演变及城镇用地扩展的驱动机理，结果表明：在1998—2007年间咸宁市城镇用地处于不断扩展状态，但地区差异明显；咸宁市城镇用地时空演变受产业结构、固定投资总额、城镇居民人均收入和城镇化率的驱动，其中产业结构驱动最为明显，因此应加大城镇土地管理力度，提高城镇土地利用集约度。

英文摘要：

This paper systematically studied the spatio - temporal change characteristics and the driving, mechanism of urban land use expansion in Xianning city by using time series model, relative change rate of land use pattern, grey system dynamic model and relation analysis. The results indicated that the urban land use has being expanded from 1998 to 2007, but it had obvious difference among different districts of Xianning city. The spatio - temporal evolution of urban land use was influenced by industrial structure, the total volume of investment in fixed assets, per capita income of urban residents and urbanization rate, and the industrial structure was the most important factor. So we should enhance urban land management and improve the intensive degree of urban land use.