中文摘要：

参予联合模型 Intercomparison 的 42 个气候模型投射阶段 3 和 5 首先以他们模仿东方亚洲冬季(DecemberFebruary ) 和夏天(JuneAugust ) 的现在的气候学的能力被评估季风。在第 21 世纪的东方亚洲冬季和夏天季风变化然后在排出物情形(SRES ) 上在特殊报告下面用 31 和 29 个可靠气候模型的结果被投射中间范围的 A1B 情形或代表性的集中小径(RCP ) mid-low-range RCP4.5 情形分别地。结果证明东方亚洲冬季季风改变相对参考时期随着时间的过去整个的很少 19801999。地区性，它变弱(加强)(南方)向北，大约 第25a 海表面温度，从 UK 的数据遇见了办公室哈德利中心，来自在东英吉利亚和 NCEP/NCAR 月刊的大学的气候的研究单位的每月的表面空气温度分析数据，这研究在 19612010 期间在中国和北半球的中间高度的纬度上调查小雨事件的空间、时间的变化，并且讨论在小雨事件的变化之间的关系并且

英文摘要：

Forty-two climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 3 and 5 were first evaluated in terms of their ability to simulate the present climatology of the East Asian winter （December-February） and summer （June- August） monsoons. The East Asian winter and summer monsoon changes over the 21st century were then projected using the results of 31 and 29 reliable climate models under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios （SRES） mid-range A1B scenario or the Representative Concentration Pathways （RCP） mid-low-range RCP4.5 scenario, respectively. Results showed that the East Asian winter monsoon changes little over time as a whole relative to the reference period 1980-1999. Regionally, it weakens （strengthens） north （south） of about 25°N in East Asia, which results from atmospheric circulation changes over the western North Pacific and Northeast Asia owing to the weakening and northward shift of the Aleutian Low, and from decreased northwest-southeast thermal and sea level pressure differences across Northeast Asia. In summer, monsoon strengthens slightly in East China over the 21 st century as a consequence of an increased land-sea thermal contrast between the East Asian continent and the adjacent western North Pacific and South China Sea.