基于中国31个省市2002~2011年的面板数据,采用SYS—GMM估计方法对产业升级以及与此相伴随的人口结构转变对城乡居民收入差距影响进行了考察,研究发现:产业升级、人口抚养比的上升以及劳动年龄人口比重的下降将扩大城乡居民收入差距。尽管增强城乡劳动力流动将有助于缩小城乡居民收入差距,但是人口抚养比的提高以及相应的劳动年龄人口比重的下降将伴随城乡劳动力流动性的增强扩大了城乡居民收入差距。而产业升级将伴随人口扶养比的提高和城乡劳动力流动的增强进一步扩大城乡居民收入差距。
This paper uses the method of SYS - GMM to analyze the impact of the industrial upgrading and demographic structure on the urban - rural income gap with the provincial panel data from 2002 to 2011. The results show that the industrial upgrading, the decrease of the labor ratio and the increase of the demographic dependency ratio will broaden the urban - rural income gap significantly. Although labor flow between the urban and rural areas narrows the urban - rural income gap, the interactive effect between the increase of the demographic dependency ratio and the labor flow on broadening the urban - rural income gap is significant. Similarly, industrial upgrading broadens the urban - rural income gap further with the increase of the demographic dependency ratio and the labor flow between the urban and rural areas.