气候变化指数是目前有关气候变化研究领域的前沿课题,国内外在气候变化研究领域存在着许多具体指数,但关于综合指数的研究却非常少见.本文将基于温度和降水的单一要素指数的气候变化信息进行综合,得到一个综合气候变化指数CCI(climate change index)以评估中国近50年来的气候变化及其区域敏感性.指数大小表征气候突变前后极端气候事件的频数之差,反映该地区应对气候变化的能力,反映该地区对气候变化的敏感性.通过该指数可以获得多种气候变化的相关信息,从而为更好地应对极端气候事件提供判断依据.研究结果显示,内蒙古大部、东北中部、云南以及西北中部等地CCI指数较大,说明这些地区相对于气候突变之前极端气候事件频发.中国各个省份中的所有站点的CCI指数平均值表明,中国江南和西南东部对气候变化不敏感;华北和东北地区极端气候事件频发.气候变化在高纬度地区和热带、亚热带地区表现明显,北方和西南比较敏感,而黄河以南敏感性较弱,沿海地区由于受季风及台风带来的强降水的影响,CCI指数相对偏大,敏感性较强.
Climate change index is one of advanced issues in climate change research.There exist many specific indices in climate change research in China and other countries,but comprehensive indexes are very rare.So in this paper,a comprehensive climate change index(CCI) is defined based on single factor of temperature and precipitation index to assess the sensitivity of climate change,and the comprehensive information about climate change is obtained.Because the index size represents the difference in frequency between before and after extreme climate events around abrupt climate change,reflecting the ability for one region to respond to climate change and the sensitivity to the climate change,the index indicates a variety of information about climate change and can provide a certain judgment basis to better deal with extreme climate events.According to the CCI,the climate change and its regional sensitivity in China in recent 50 years are discussed.The results show that Inner Mongolia,northeast central,northwest and central Yunnan have higher CCI indexes,which indicates that the extreme climate events in these regions happen more frequently after the abrupt climate change. The mean CCI is computed of all stations in each province in China,showing that South China and east part of Southwest China each have a minimal index,indicating that these areas are not sensitive to climate change;in the North and Northeast China extreme events happen frequently.Climate change is obvious in high latitude and tropical and subtropical regions,the North and Southwest China are more sensitive,while the South of the Yellow River is less sensitive.The coastal areas with relatively high CCI have strong sensitivities due to the heavy rainfall influence from monsoon and typhoon.