中文摘要：

在沉降观测过程中,获取的数据经常存在着不确定性,影响参数估计的可靠性和沉降预测的准确性。把不确定度作为参数融入AR模型,建立基于AR模型的不确定性平差模型。依据残差中不确定性传播规律,利用min-max估计准则,使得残差中的最大不确定度达到最小,从一个新的角度探讨不确定性观测数据的处理方法,得到基于不确定性算法的AR模型,扩展了现有误差理论。通过沉降实例进一步验证算法的优越性。

英文摘要：

Uncertainty often arises in the process of obtaining settlement observation data,affecting the reliability of parameter estimation and the accuracy of settlement prediction.This paper establishes a new adjustment model in which uncertainty is incorporated into the AR model as a parameter.An algorithm is given based on an uncertainty propagation law in the residual errors.A new way is used to research uncertainty,in which maximum possible uncertainty is minimized：existing error theory is extended with new observational data about uncertainty.