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基于FMM算法的夏秋季登陆中国热带气旋路径分类及特征分析
  • ISSN号:1674-7097
  • 期刊名称:《大气科学学报》
  • 时间:0
  • 分类:P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]
  • 作者机构:[1]南京信息工程大学计算机与软件学院,江苏南京210044, [2]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,江苏南京210044, [3]江苏省连云港市气象局,江苏连云港222000
  • 相关基金:国家自然科学基金资助项目(41201045); 江苏省自然科学基金资助项目(BK20151458); 2016江苏省青蓝工程资助项目
中文摘要:

利用有限混合模型FMM聚类算法,将1951—2012年夏秋季(6—11月)登陆我国的热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone,TC)路径数据集分为三类,并对三类不同路径TC的季节变化、发生频数、环流形势等特征进行对比分析。研究表明,每类TC存在明显的特征差异:1)在夏季,第一、二类TC出现频数高于第三类,但在秋季第三类TC发生频数最高。2)第一类TC生成位置偏北,强度较强,生命史较长,路径略有向北发展的趋势,影响区域最广;第二类TC生命史最短,主要影响我国两广、福建一带;第三类TC生命史最长,路径略向西北方向发展。3)第一类TC在生成和消亡时的辐合程度最强,且副高脊线西伸脊点位置偏北;第二类TC在消亡时低层辐合最弱,且副高脊线西伸脊点位置偏西;第三类TC在生成时纬向风垂直切变最强,且副高脊线西伸脊点位置偏东南。

英文摘要:

To further explore tropical cyclones'(TCs) law and climate characteristics of occurrence,development and disappearance,this study applies Finite-Mixed-Model(FMM) which is based on clustering algorithms to cluster landfall tracks of TCs over China during summer and autumn(from June to November).The data of typhoon best tracks and circulation fields are from the Shanghai Typhoon Institute(STI) of China Meteorological Administration(CMA) and 6-hourly reanalysis data of wind and other fields from NCEP/NCAR for the period 1951-2012 during summer and autumn.The three clusters are analyzed for comparison in terms of TC's active season,frequency and circulation.The TC tracks landing China are divided into three categories by using FMM algorithm,which corresponds with the traditional classification result.Cluster-1 approximates the recurve-landing type,Cluster-2 approximates to the westward-landing type,and Cluster-3 approximates to the northwest-landing type.The findings are summarized as follows.In summer,Cluster-1 and Cluster-2 appear more frequently than Cluster-3,however,Cluster-3 has the highest frequency of occurrence in autumn.The generate location of Cluster-1 is the most northward,and the intensity is relatively strong.The track of Cluster-1's development shows northward trend,affecting the most extensive region,such as the Yangtze River Delta,the Pearl River Delta,Beijing,Tianjin and other economically developed areas,and even affect the Korean Peninsula and the Japanese Islands.The generate location of Cluster-2 is the most westward,its lifetime is the shortest and its intensity is the weakest,but it owns the highest frequency of occurrence.This type mainly affects China's Guangdong,Guangxi and Fujian.The generate location of Cluster-3 is the most southward,and its lifetime is the most enduring,but more inactive than Cluster-1 and Cluster-2.With respect to the track,this type slightly move to the northwest direction.Cluster-3 mainly affects China's Fujian,Zheji

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期刊信息
  • 《大气科学学报》
  • 中国科技核心期刊
  • 主管单位:江苏省教育厅
  • 主办单位:南京信息工程大学
  • 主编:王会军
  • 地址:南京市宁六路219号
  • 邮编:210044
  • 邮箱:ndh70@126.com
  • 电话:025-58731158 58699794
  • 国际标准刊号:ISSN:1674-7097
  • 国内统一刊号:ISSN:32-1803/P
  • 邮发代号:28-405
  • 获奖情况:
  • 2002年华东地区优秀期刊,江苏省双十佳期刊,1999年全国高校自然科学学报系统优秀二等奖,江苏...,1997年江苏省优秀期刊、江苏省一级期刊
  • 国内外数据库收录:
  • 英国农业与生物科学研究中心文摘,美国剑桥科学文摘,日本日本科学技术振兴机构数据库,中国中国科技核心期刊,中国北大核心期刊(2011版),中国北大核心期刊(2014版)
  • 被引量:2700