中文摘要：

传统的交通需求预测方法以交通小区为研究单位,会产生集计误差,在出行生成阶段对于不同的交通小区使用相同的平均出行率来确定出行生成量,没有考虑交通小区魅力度对出行生成的影响,为减小城市交通需求预测中由于不同小区出行生成率不同造成的预测误差,应用非集计模型理论,分析了影响交通小区魅力度的因素,结合目的地选择模型给出小区间出行效用以及小区魅力度的计算方法,以此来修正传统的出行生成和分布模型,并以北京市调查数据为例说明了上述方法的应用。

英文摘要：

Traditional forecasting method of traffic demand is based on the study of traffic zones. Therefore, aggregate error is produced. Trip generation forecasting method use the same average trip generation rate to determine trip generation volume in different traffic zones. The fascination of traffic zones is not considered. In order to reduce the forecasting error produced by different trip generation rate in different traffic zones, influencing factors of fascination of traffic zones were analyzed and the detailed calculation method of trip efficiency and fascination of zones combined with destination model based on disaggregate theory is given in this paper to modify traditional model of trip generation and distribution. A case in Beijing is used to explain the application of the method above.