中文摘要：

对遵义永乐镇岩溶塌陷区域风险因素进行了识别和确定,选取岩溶条件、覆盖层条件、构造条件、地下水条件等4个准则层,共13个风险因子来建立层次结构模型。结合当地水文地质背景,运用层次分析法（AHP）计算出风险因子权重;确定各区域岩溶塌陷风险等级,借助Arc GIS技术对研究区进行岩溶塌陷风险评价。结果表明：塌陷极危险区呈北北西向、不规则条带状位于研究区中部;塌陷危险区和次危险区依次位于极危险区的两侧;最外侧的为次稳定区;最南边及东边局地为稳定区。该结果与近年来发生岩溶塌陷的地理位置和塌陷危害程度相吻合。

英文摘要：

The risk factors causing karst collapse of Yongle Town in Zunyi city are recognized and confirmed. In the hierarchical structure model there are 13 factors belonging to 4 conditions ： karst development condition, overburden condition, geotectonic condition, groundwater condition. Combined with local hydrogeology background, weight of risk factors was calculated by Analytic Hierarchy Process（ AHP）. The risk gradation division of karst collapse of each zone was confirmed, and risk evaluation of karst collapse in research area was defined by ArcGIS technology. The result shows that the most subsidence area is distributed on the central region of research area, which is presented as NNW irregular stripe. The more likely and likely subsidence areas are successively distributed at the two sides of the most likely subsidence area. The less stable and stable areas are respectively distributed at the outside or around the edge of south and the east. The results are adaptable to the geographical location and hazard degree of collapse in recent years.