中文摘要：

利用环日本岛沿岸38个验潮站连续36 a的实测水位资料,分析了环日本岛沿岸平均海平面的长期变化特征,结果表明平均海平面的异常变化在1984年前后发生较大转折,近20多年来主要呈现持续上升趋势,部分站位在1997年前后也有较明显的下降趋势,表明海平面的长期变化中存在较长周期的波动情况。通过对所有验潮站的日平均海平面序列进行平均,发现与西北太平洋SST异常变化呈正相关,相关系数为0.908;与太平洋年代际变化（PDO）指数呈负相关,相关系数为-0.6;与西北太平洋风旋度场的异常变化呈正相关,相关系数为0.402。结果表明环日本岛沿岸平均海平面的长期变化受到海水热膨胀效应、太平洋年代际变化以及风应力引起的海水堆积和流失等因素的影响。同时,发现从2000年开始西北太平洋的SST开始下降,而平均海平面仍然在持续上升,其上升原因还需作进一步研究与探讨。

英文摘要：

By analyzing the 36 years sea level data in 38 tidal stations around the coast of Japan Island,we obtain the long-term variability of the mean sea levels.The results show that there is a sea levels shift around 1984 with a continious rising trend in recently 20 years.The results also find an obvious downward trend in some stations around 1997,which suggests a long period fluctuation.By averaging the daily mean sea level data from all the tidal stations,the resuts find the sea level has a good correlation of 0.908 with the sea surface temperature（SST） in the northwest Pacific,of-0.6 with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation（PDO）index and of-0.402 with the wind stress curl anomaly in the northwest Pacific Ocean.The above results indicate that the mean sea level long-term variability,around the Japan Island,is influenced by thermal expansion of seawater,Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the winds curl.The northwest Pacific SST is descending since 2000,while the mean sea level continue to rise.The reasons for the sea level rising in the past several years needs future study.