采用支持向量机方法对风电场短期风速设计后评估主要从技术方面对风电场设计进行综合评价.而不包括一般项目后评价中的财务评价、环境评价、经济评价和社会评价等内容,并且重点放在风能专业的风资源评价和发电量计算这两方面。在准确可靠的测风数据基础上,设计中的不确定性主要表现在3方面:1)风电场测风数据的代表年订正:2)风资源计算软件本身的误差;3)各种发电量折减系数的选取。对设计中的不确定性因素,结合风电场实际运行数据进行了比较分析,进一步给出了各种不确定因素的参考误差。
A comprehensive post-evaluation of a wind farm in Inner Mongolia is made in this paper mainly from the technical respects, excluding the financial assessment, environment assessment, economic assessment and social assessment which are normally included in the project post-evaluation. The evaluation in question focuses on the wind resource assessments and energy calculation. According to the accurate wind measurement, the uncertainties in the design exist mainly in the following three aspects: 1) the amendment of the wind data for the representative year; 2) the errors from the calculations by the wind resource assessment software; 3) the selection of all sorts of energy discount coefficients. The evaluation presents analysis and comparison of the uncertain factors in the design combined with the actual operating data, giving the reference errors for each of the uncertain factors.