中文摘要：

以快速城镇化的安徽省为例，在计算出该省1995～2013年生态足迹数据的基础上，分析其动态变化，并采用偏最小二乘（PLS）回归方法、STIRPAT模型研究了影响生态足迹的因素。结果表明：从生态足迹的动态变化来看，该省1995～2013年的生态足迹和生态赤字均较大，且呈不断上升态势，安徽省的城镇化发展是不可持续的。从生态足迹的影响因素来看，人口因素、经济因素以及技术因素均对生态足迹具有显著影响。其中，技术进步对人均生态足迹的增长具有抑制作用，而人口总数的增加、三大产业的发展、城镇化水平的提高和居民消费增加均会造成生态足迹增加：城镇化的影响最大，城镇化率每提升1％，人均生态足迹就会上升0．210 5 hm2。根据分析，建议安徽省在未来的新型城镇化进程中，要防止城镇化过快发展，实施“紧凑型”城市发展战略，要注重利用技术创新提高能源利用效率、促进产业结构升级，并通过大力宣传绿色生活方式等多种途径降低生态足迹，促进城镇化可持续发展。

英文摘要：

The rapid development of urbanization brought about serious resources and ecological problems. From 1995 to2013, Anhui province experienced fast urbanization. The urbanization rate rose from 17.4% in 1995 to 47.9% in 2013,totally rising 30%. Especially from 2005 to 2013, the average annual increase rate of urbanization was 1.6%, higher thanthe national average value of 1.3%. With the case of Anhui province, this paper studied the development path of newpattern urbanization from the perspective of ecological footprint. Firstly, it calculated ecological footprint from 1995 to2013 of Anhui province, then discussed its dynamic change, lastly analysed factors affecting ecological footprint. Resultsshowed that the per capital ecological footprint of Anhui province was increasing year by year. From 1995 to 2013, itincreased from 0.888 3 hm2 per capital to 2.445 7 hm2 per capital, annually growing 7.62% on average. While the ecologicaldeficit of Anhni Province was also increasing yearly from 1995 to 2013, up from 0.410 6 hm2 per capita in 1995 to 1.722 1hm2 per capital, rising more than 3 times. The size and the amount of increase of six categories of land were different. Thesize of per capital ecological footprint, fossil land＇s ecological footprint accounted for more than a half, the second wasarable land, and others＇ ecological footprint was relatively small. From the perspective of the amount of increase, theecological footprint of grassland increased fastest, from 0.013 2 hm2 per capital to 0.085 5 hm2 per capital in 2013, almostgrowing 6 times. The building land＇s ecological footprint had risen more than 4 times, from 0.001 4 hm2per capita in 1995to 0.007 2 hm2 per capital. The ecological footprint of forest land, water area and fossil land have risen about twice. Whilethe arable land＇s ecological footprint has been stable during 1995 to 2013, maintaining 0.32 hm2 per capital. These datashowed that the urbanization of Anhui province was not sustainable. Demographic factors, technical factors and economicfac