利用2001—2009年中国30个省分分国别(地区)的出口贸易数据,采用空间探索性数据分析方法分析了各国及地区在我国的出口贸易空间格局,发现各国(地区)在我国的出口贸易中表现出较为显著的空间相关性。进一步,本文构建了考虑空间滞后因子的引力模型实证分析了文化差异和运输距离对我国各省分国别(地区)出口贸易的影响。研究结果表明:我国邻省出口对本省的空间溢出效应随着时间的推移不断增强;而邻省与本省在出口伙伴国选择上的“竞争效应”并不明显;文化差异在各国及地区在我国各省的出口贸易中所起的限制性作用表现突出;而陆运距离对各省分国别(地区)出口贸易的负向影响要明显大于海运距离,且随着时间的推移有不断扩大的迹象。
Based on the export trade data by countries (regions) of 30 provinces in China from the year 2001 to 2009, this paper finds out significant spatial correlation among countries (regions) in export trade with China after analyzing the export trade spatial pattern of each country(region)with the help of the spatial exploratory data analysis method. Furthermore, this paper constructs a gravity model, which takes spatial lag factor into consideration, to make an empirical analysis of the impact on export trade of each province (region) to different countries caused by culture differences and geographical distance. The research shows that. in China, the spatial spillover effects of export trade from neighboring provinces will be strengthened constantly as time goes on; while there is no obvious "competition effects" on options of export partner countries between provinces and its neighbors; culture differences of countries and regions obviously limit the export trade of each province; the negative effect from road distance is much greater than that from ocean shipping to export trade by country and region of each province and this gap has been becoming expanding as time goes on.