中文摘要：

从海洋经济脆弱性内涵出发,构建敏感性和应对性指标,运用主、客观相结合的组合赋权法确定指标权重,并结合集对分析法,分析1996-2012年中国海洋经济系统脆弱性的演变趋势及影响因素。结果表明：1中国海洋经济系统对不利扰动的敏感性呈下降趋势,对内、外冲击的应对能力表现出增强趋势,脆弱性不断下降;2运用回归分析法分析海洋经济系统敏感性、应对能力与脆弱性之间的关系,得出应对性的强弱对脆弱性的影响居于主导地位;3提出相应的降低海洋经济脆弱性的对策,包括充分合理利用海洋资源,改变经济增长方式;加强陆海统筹,优化产业结构;推进科学技术创新和人才培养;加强海洋环境保护和污染治理等。

英文摘要：

Vulnerability assessment is an important method to reveal the economic development ＂bottleneck＂ factors, and has great significance to analyze the major restricted factors to achieve economic development.Based on a detailed description about the vulnerability of marine economic system（MESV）, the article establishes a vulnerability assessment model of marine economic system in China from the aspects of sensitivity and response capacity. Then it combines the methods of set pair analysis and vulnerability assessment, and uses combination weight method to evaluate the indicators and to calculate their weights, then analyzes the evolution trends and major influencing factors of vulnerability in marine economic system from 1996 to 2012. At last, it puts forward corresponding development countermeasures. The results indicate that the vulnerability in marine economic system of China during the past 17 years, shows a declining trend, and the sensitivity to adverse disturbance takes on a declining trend and response capacity sometimes presents a wandering period,sometimes in a growth phase for internal and external shocks. The MESV has two characteristics： 1） the MESV declined rapidly in 1996-2001, 2005-2006, and 2008-2010; 2） the MESV showed little change, more stable in 2001-2005, 2006-2008, and 2010-2012. The evolution of sensitivity can be divided into two stages：decreased obviously form 1996 to 2002, fluctuating frequented from 2002 to 2012. The evolution of response capacity fluctuated slightly in 1996-2002 and 2008-2012, and then went up steadily from 2002 to 2012. The influence of sensitivity plays a leading role to the vulnerability in marine economic system of China among the sensitivity, response capacity and vulnerability by using regression analysis. It suggests that in improving response capacity and reducing the vulnerability in marine economic system of China, the style of economic growth should be changed, including controlling over-exploitation and rational utilization of marine resources,