中文摘要：

近年来,中国发生了多起针对燃煤电厂建设的公众抵制事件,影响了现代燃煤发电项目的正常实施。以＂平江燃煤电厂事件＂为例,分析公众在政府宣传前后对煤电项目的态度变化,应用SIR传染病模型对公众支持率的变化进行系统仿真,通过计算基尼系数对政府宣传效果进行评价。结果表明：传染病模型可以较好地反映公众支持态度的动态变化过程,政府宣传促进了公众支持态度的确立,政府宣传行为的基尼系数值G=0.375〈0.4,虽在合理范围内但仍存在优化空间。根据以上研究结果,从大型火电项目决策模式变革和宣传策略实施两个方面提出了政策建议。

英文摘要：

In recent years,several plans to build coal-fired power plant lead to public boycott in China,which lead the national thermal power energy projects are hard to be completed on time. Therefore ,taking Pingjiang coal-fired power event as the example, we analyze people＇s changing attitudes towards the government propaganda. Then based on SIR epidemic model, simulation analysis on the public support rate is carded out. Finally, government propaganda is evaluated from the Gini coefficient. The results show that epidemic model can reflect the dynamic change process of public support,and government propaganda acts as a medium to promote this process. The Gini coefficient of government propaganda is G=0.375 〈0.4,which is reasonable,but also has the optimization space. This paper discussed the effect of the government propaganda from a case,and put forward the proposal and the countermeasure from the decision-making mode transformation and the propaganda strategy implementation for the NIMBY project, especially coal-fired power plant.