中文摘要：

采用改进的甚高分辨率辐射计（AVHRR）、热带降水测量卫星（TRMM）、快速散射计（QuikSCAT）等最新高分辨率的卫星遥感资料和美国国家环境预报中心和气象研究中心（NCEP／NCAR）多年平均再分析资料，揭示出气候态下菲律宾以西海域3012以上高温暖水的出现和面积突增可以作为南海夏季风爆发的先兆，高温暖水具有生命期短的特征。研究指出高温暖水导致的局地对流在南海夏季风爆发中起着重要作用，高温暖水的年际变化与南海夏季风爆发时间早晚关系密切。

英文摘要：

The formation and decay of the warm water with sea surface temperature （SST） higher than 30℃ in the upper South China Sea （SCS） west of the Philippines is investigated using a suite of new satellite measurements and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. It is found that the appearance and rapid expansion of this warm water can be utilized to objectively predict the SCS summer monsoon （SCSSM） onset. Our hypothesis suggests an air-sea feedback scenario that may explain the development of the SCSSM. The warm water ex- hibits considerable year-to-year variations. There are close relations between the warm water area and its strength and the onset date of the SCSSM.