中文摘要：

松散堆积土滑坡受地下水位变化影响显著，地下水位变化先于地表位移，易于监测。在坡体表面位移与地下水位之间建立联系，将地下水位监测作为滑坡预测的手段或辅助预测手段具有广泛的应用前景。相关数据序列分析可借助向量自回归模型，其兼顾数据序列的相关性分析和回归分析，可用于研究时间顺序数据间的滞后效应及多种时序间的联系。基于地下水位变化会引起滑坡下滑推力改变的认识，将实测地下水位变化的时序数据转化为推力引起土体位移加速度的改变，建立实测滑坡位移变化加速度与根据地下水位变化引起滑坡推力变化的计算标称加速度的向量自回归模型，可判断坡体表面位移受地下水位影响的规律及相应的滞后时间。所建立模型应用于上虞～三门高速公路6“滑坡分析，验证模型在滑坡位移预测中的有效性，为相关滑坡工程的预测分析提供了参考和借鉴。

英文摘要：

The loose deposit landslide was significantly influenced by the groundwater level which was easily monitored and changed before the slope surface moving. Based on the relationship between surface displacement and groundwater level, taking the monitoring of the groundwater level as landslide prediction or aided prediction had a broad prospect. The vector auto-regression model could be applied to analyze the data sequences. It synthesized the correlation and regression analysis of data sequences and could be used to analyze the time lag effect and the relation among several time series. Based on the concept that the downslide thrust of landslide would vary with groundwater level, the measured data of groundwater level could be converted into thrust which induced the change of slope acceleration. And then, the vector auto-regression model which included the measured acceleration of landslide and nominal acceleration stemming from thrust calculated by groundwater level was built The effect law of groundwater level on surface displacement and the lag time could be estimated by the use of the model. The validity of built model in landslide displacement prediction was verified by application it to the No.6 landslide of Shangyu--Sanmen highway; and it provided reference for similar landslide prediction.