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中文摘要：
根据呼图壁河流域石门水文站1978-2011年的气温、降水及径流量资料,研究了呼图壁河流域近34年来径流量的变化趋势和突变特征,建立了基于多变量时间序列CAR（Controlled Auto-regressive）的径流预测模型,并应用该模型预测了未来不同气候变化情景下呼图壁河流域的年径流量。结果表明,呼图壁河流域年径流量、气温及降水量都呈现不同程度的增加趋势,其中年径流量在1987年发生明显突变,而年降水量和年均气温突变特征不明显;CAR模型在呼图壁河流域年径流量模拟的结果较好,平均相对误差为7.1%,达到了模型精度要求,说明该模型在呼图壁河流域有较高的适用性。在未来区域气候暖湿化背景下,对呼图壁河流域未来不同气候变化情景下的径流量进行预测,发现在降水和蒸发增加的情景下,呼图壁河年径流量均呈增加的趋势;在极端干旱条件下,径流量也表现出增加的趋势。该研究对流域水资源的合理利用与综合管理具有重要意义。
英文摘要：
According to the temperature ,precipitation and runoff data from 1978 to 2011 in Shimen Gauge Station of Hutubi River , the changing trends and mutation characteristics of runoff nearly 34 years are analyzed in this paper .The runoff prediction model based on multivariate time series CAR （Controlled Auto-regressive）is also built to forecast annual runoff under different climate change scenarios in the future of Hutubi River basin .Results show that the annual runoff ,temperature and precipitation are presen‐ting an increasing trend of different degrees ,The annual runoff had obvious mutation in 1987 ,but the annual precipitation and annual average temperature was not obvious .The result of CAR model used to simulate the annual runoff in Hutubi River basin is good ,the average relative error is 7 .1% ,reaching the model accuracy .It shows that the model has a high applicability in Hutubi River basin . The background of regional climate is getting warm and wet ,forecasting runoff of Hutubi River basin under different climate change scenarios in the future finds that when the precipitation and evaporation increases ,the annual runoff of Hutubi River basin presents a trend of increase .Considering the extreme drought conditions ,runoff also shows an increasing trend .From what has been dis‐cussed above the study is of great significance on reasonable use and integrated management of water resources .
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