中文摘要：

基于矿业城市转型的基本方向,应用系统动力学理论和方法,以典型的煤矿城市——淮南市为例,分析矿业城市转型过程中高新技术产业、旅游业和采矿业三个典型产业间的互动关系,建立该市转型过程仿真模型,拟合变量间函数关系,预测该市经济在未来20年的发展趋势,对比仿真转型过程中管理资源在三个子系统间的流动规律和趋势,通过调控不同产业的投入比对比分析,提出转型升级过程中政府投入的政策选择路径,帮助矿业类城市提高转型规划的主动性和科学性。研究证实：现有投资结构下改变该市煤炭产业主导地位格局需要10年左右的时间,与加大对旅游业投入相比,此时间段内不断增加高新技术产业投入是确保经济平稳增长、实现成功转型升级的最佳政策选择。

英文摘要：

Based on the basic view of the transformation of mining cities,by using system dynamics theory and method,takes a typical coal city-Huainan city as an example,analyzes the interactions of three typical industries：high technology industries,tourism and mining,sets up the city’s transformation process simulation model,and then fits function relationship of variables,in order to predict the trend of urban economy over the next 20 years,and get the resource operation law of the three subsystems in the process of transformation.What’s more,comparative simulation and analysis of different industry is carried out to put forward the policy for the government investment,which helps improve the planning of transformation initiative and scientific for mining cities.Research proves that under the existing investment structure,changing the leading position of the coal industry needs 10 years or so,and it is optimal policy choice that keeps big growth of government investment in new and high technology industries,to keep stable economic growth.