中文摘要：

我国要建立巨灾保险基金的提议由来已久，然而包括理论研究上的缺乏等因素导致巨灾保险基金迟迟难以推出。以地震风险为例，通过对历史地震损失数据的统计分析，利用随机模拟技术对地震风险进行模拟；采用在险价值（VaR）方法，对我国的地震保险基金规模进行测度。研究结果表明，我国地震保险基金的规模随着风险容忍度与再保险附加费率的不同差别较大，从最小的8．56亿元到最大的216亿元不等。最后，对该测度结果进行了分析并提出了相应的政策建议。

英文摘要：

The voice of building up the catastrophe insurance fund is looming large in China. The lack of relative theory, however, impedes the agenda. This paper studied historical earthquake-related damages statistics and simu- lated earthquake risk stochastically in mainland China. Then it calculated the scale of catastrophe （earthquake） in- surance fund using stochastic simulation and VaR. The results showed that the scale varied greatly with different risk tolerance coefficients and reinsurance premium rates, ranging from RMB 856 million to RMB 21.6 billion. The paper offered some suggestions in the end.