运用结构方程建模(SEM)方法,采用验证性分析与探索性分析相结合的思路,根据106家中国中小板上市公司的调查问卷和2008年年报数据,对中国特色的上市公司资本结构构念进行了检证,并根据2011—2013年中小板公司年报数据,选择了686家样本公司进行大样本稳健性检验。首先,根据文献进行规范研究,构建具有股权结构和债务结构两个横截面的资本结构构念理论模型。其次,运用因子分析和结构方程建模等实证方法,构建11个SEM模型,分别从股权结构、债务结构、股权结构和债务结构的关系、经营绩效、股权结构和债务结构与经营绩效的关系等五个方面,对资本结构理论模型进行模型拟合、模型评价和模型修正。最后,结合资本结构构念的理论模型和实证模型提出,以中小板公司为代表的中国上市公司资本结构不能简单模仿国外惯例,即只用资产负债率作为唯一的代理变量,而中国实情决定了第一大股东持股比例是资本结构不可或缺的代理变量。由资产负债率和第一大股东持股比例共同构成的资本结构构念才能对企业经营绩效提供较强的解释力。
This paper adopts the structural equation analysis to analyze the Chinese char acterized capital structure on the basis of questionnaires and financial date of 106 Chinese small board listing corporations. Then, the robustness test is on the date from 2011 to 2013 of 686 small board listing corporations. Firstly, normative research is conducted according to literature and a theory model of two-cross-sectioned capital structure (ownership structure and debt structure) is constructed. Then empirical research methods such as factor analysis and SEM are employed to form 11 SEM models. These models are then applied in capital structural theories to carry out model fitting, model evaluation and model modification in sev- en aspects. The several aspects include,ownership structure, debt structure, the relationship between ownership structure and debt structure, operation performance, the relationship be- tween operation performance and ownership and debt structure. Finally, based on the theo- retical and empirical models of capital structure, the paper proposes that the capital structure of Chinese listed companies shouldn't simply copy foreign methods to use debt ratio as the only agent variable. The stock percentage owned by the first shareholder should be an indis- pensable agent variable under the Chinese circumstances. Only the combination of debt ratio and stock percentage of the first shareholder together can best explain the enterprises' opera- tion performance.