中文摘要：

This paper discusses oasis stability at regional scale with a case study in the northern slope areas of the Tianshan Mountains (NSTM). The results showed certain significant aspects. (1) As long as water resources in the oasis keep stable and their utilization efficiency can be maintained or gradually increased, the primary productivity could be continuously increased and the natural primary productivity keeped relatively stable. In this case, it is considered that the oasis is stable and its sustainable development can be achieved at regional scale. (2) Considering the availability of water resources in the oases, the oases on the alluvial-diluvial fans are highly stable. In the alluvial plain downstream of the groundwater overflowing zones the oases are moderately stable and in the lacustrine deltas or dry lacustrine deltas the oases are lowly stable. (3) Enlargement of oases and the increase of water resources and vegetation coverage in the oasis will certainly enhance the 'cold-island effect' of the oasis and increase the stability of oases.

英文摘要：

This paper discusses oasis stability at regional scale with a case study in the northern slope areas of the Tianshan Mountains (NSTM). The results showed certain significant aspects. (1) As long as water resources in the oasis keep stable and their utilization efficiency can be maintained or gradually increased, the primary productivity could be continuously increased and the natural primary productivity keeped relatively stable. In this case, it is considered that the oasis is stable and its sustainable development can be achieved at regional scale. (2) Considering the availability of water resources in the oases, the oases on the alluvial-diluvial fans are highly stable. In the alluvial plain downstream of the groundwater overflowing zones the oases are moderately stable and in the lacustrine deltas or dry lacustrine deltas the oases are lowly stable. (3) Enlargement of oases and the increase of water resources and vegetation coverage in the oasis will certainly enhance the 'cold-island effect' of the oasis and increase the stability of oases.