中文摘要：

这份报纸在中国，其大多数被分类进农村家庭生产，基于农业的工程生产，和基于工业的工程生产讨论历史和 biogas 生产的不同范畴的现在的地位。评估中国的未来 biogas 生产，包括 Hubbert 模型，的五个模型 Weibull 模特儿，概括 Weng 模型， H-C-Z 模型，和灰色当模特儿被使用分析并且预报每个省和全部国家的 biogas 生产。从油研究发源的那些模型能也被用于另外的精力来源，这被证明。模拟结果表明那瓷器全部的 biogas 生产是不大可能的在以下几年里坚持一个快成长的趋势，主要由于在农村家庭的最近的减少生产，和这极大地由正式部门不同于以前的目标集合。另外，瓷器 biogas 生产以后将在区域之中介绍一个更不平的模式。这篇论文将为三个 biogas 部门的地区性的差别给初步的解释并且为开创相应政策和策略在中国支持 biogas 工业的发展建议一些建议。

英文摘要：

This paper discusses the history and present status of different categories of biogas production in China,most of which are classified into rural household production,agriculture-based engineering production,and industry-based engineering production.To evaluate the future biogas production of China,five models including the Hubbert model,the Weibull model,the generalized Weng model,the H-C-Z model,and the Grey model are applied to analyze and forecast the biogas production of each province and the entire country.It is proved that those models which originated from oil research can also be applied to other energy sources.The simulation results reveal that China＇s total biogas production is unlikely to keep on a fast-growing trend in the next few years,mainly due to a recent decrease in rural household production,and this greatly differs from the previous goal set by the official department.In addition,China＇s biogas production will present a more uneven pattern among regions in the future.This paper will give preliminary explanation for the regional difference of the three biogas sectors and propose some recommendations for instituting corresponding policies and strategies to promote the development of the biogas industry in China.