中文摘要：

利用NRSM短期气候模式对浙江省温州市这一台风重灾区的台汛期短期气候要素——月平均气温进行预测。结果发现,该模式对气温的定量预测能力表现出色;对各地7-9月台汛期冷暖趋势预报的准确率可达约50%。利用该模式进行2007年4-6月的试报,效果较好,但仍存在不足,有待改进。

英文摘要：

A regional spectral model based on nested primitive equations is developed. The model consists of two components-a low-resolution global spectral model and a high-resolution regional spectral model,with identical vertical structure and physical processes. The global model component is a low-resolution version of the operational global spectral model of National Meteorological Center （NMC） of the United States,using spherical harmonics as horizontal basis functions. The primitive equations in the regional spectral model are based on a stereographic projection,with sine-cosine series as horizontal basis functions. The regional component can predict deviations from the forecast of the global model component,as first proposed by Hoyer. A semi-implicit time scheme,time filtering,initialization,and horizontal diffusion are applied to these deviations in the regional domain. Wenzhou mean temperature during the seasons of typhoon is investigated by using the NRSM model. Some valuable sections are obtained and used for typhoon forecasting.