中文摘要：

本文实证考察了微观企业的会计盈余信息与宏观的未来GDP增长率之间的关系。研究结果表明，加总的季度会计盈余增长率是未来名义季度GDP增长率的一个重要的增量预测指标。然而，目前的宏观经济分析师在对GDP增长率进行预测时，并没有考虑到会计盈余信息的这种预测有用性，从而导致其GDP增长率预测误差可以被加总的会计盈余增长率所解释。另外，本文研究还发现，在2007年我国实行新会计准则后，加总的会计盈余增长率对于未来GDP增长率的预测作用得到了显著提高。这在一定程度上说明，新会计准则的实施提高了会计盈余的信息有用性。

英文摘要：

This paper investigates the link between micro accounting earnings informa tion of firms and macro future GDP growth. The results suggest that aggregate quarterly ac- counting earnings growth is an incrementally significant leading indicator of future growth in nominal GDP. However, professional macroeconomic analysts do not fully incorporate the predictive content impounded in accounting earnings data when they make GDP growth fore- casts. As a result, future GDP growth forecast errors are predictable based on aggregate accounting earnings growth. Furthermore, we also find that the informativeness of accounting earnings for future GDP growth increase after the adoption of new accounting standards since 2007. This evidence shows that the adoption of new accounting standards enhances the infor mational role of accounting earnings.