中文摘要：

基于ArcGIS空间分析建模工具,将城市发展适宜性模块、邻域影响模块、约束影响模块、随机影响模块进行集成,实现CA模型的构建,并以大庆市为例对城市建设用地未来发展进行模拟。研究认为：（1）将GIS空间分析和CA模型集成,模型结构清晰,避免二次程序开发;（2）根据大庆市特点,考虑资源开发因素对城市发展的影响和人口增长对随机因素的影响;（3）大庆市2015、2020年城市面积将继续扩展,城市重心将明显向北移动,并具有向东移动的趋势。

英文摘要：

Using the spatial model construction tool in ArcGIS,this paper developed an urban expansion simulation model based on logistic regression and cellular automata （CA）.This model consists of four modules,including a suitability module,a neighborhood effect module,a constraint effect module,and a random effect module.This model was applied to Daqing City,Heilongjiang to simulate its urban growth.In particular,this model was developed based on the historical urban land use data,calibrated using the reference map of 2000,and applied to simulating the urban expansion of Daqing City in 2015 and 2020.Analysis of results suggests several conclusions.Firstly,the developed CA urban expansion model using the model builder of ArcGIS has a clear modeling structure.It is easy to implement and avoids the burden of further programming.Secondly,according to the specific characteristics of Daqing,this model successfully examined the impact of petroleum industry on urban development and the influence of population growth on random factors.Finally,modeling results indicate that Daqing City will continue to expand in 2015 and 2020,and the urban center will shift toward north,with an eastward trend.