中文摘要：

鉴于目前研究缺乏灵活动态性,本文从通胀控制目标出发,引进MITVP-SV-VAR模型,选取5个金融变量,估计其每一期的灵活动态权重,构建我国灵活动态金融状况指数,并分析它对通胀率的预测能力。经验分析结果表明利率和房价的权重相对较大,反映出货币政策依然倚重于价格型传导渠道;FCI与通货膨胀有很高的相关性,且领先通胀1-7个月,能够很好地预测通胀。建议政府定期构建我国灵活动态金融状况指数并应用于通货膨胀预测。

英文摘要：

The current research is lack of flexibility and dynamic. Aimed to control infla- tion, this paper introduces MI-TVP-SV-VAR model, and chooses 5 financial condition vari- ables to estimate the flexible dynamic weight of each period. Then it constructs China＇s flexi- ble dynamic financial conditions index and analyzes its ability to forecast inflation rate. The empirical results show that the weight of interest rates and house prices are relatively large, showing that the monetary policy still relies on price-type conduction channel. FCI and infla- tion is highly correlated, and FCI is 1--7 months ahead of inflation, which means FCI can be a good predictor of inflation. So we suggest that government institutions should regularly build our flexible dynamic financial conditions index, and then apply it to the inflation forecast.