中文摘要：

近年来,我国城市内涝洪水的频度和烈度呈现逐年加剧的趋势,在难以进行高标准防洪工程措施建设的情况下,开展城市内涝预警及应急管理显得尤为重要。以珠江三角洲地区的代表性城市东莞市为例,以DPSIR模型(driving forces、pressure、state、impact、responses)为理论基础,提出了城市内涝预警评价的综合指标体系,采用模糊综合评判法对预警等级进行评价,以多普勒雷达估算的高分辨率降雨为输入,以基于分布式城市内涝预报模型预报的城市内涝水深作为评价指标,实现了城市内涝预警的精细化和综合化。本文的评价方法既可根据当前实测的指标体系开展预警评价,也可通过预报指标开展预警评价,提高预警的预见期。对东莞市近年来发生的两场最为严重的内涝的模拟预警评价结果表明,该方法效果良好,可应用于实际工作。

英文摘要：

In recent years, the frequency and intensity of urban flooding in China are in an increasing trend, urban flood warning and emergency management are particularly important in that it is difficult to build high standard engineering measures. In this paper urban flood in Dongguan City was studied as the typical city of Pearl River Delta Area. Based on the theory of DPSIR model, this paper presents an urban flood evaluation index and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for urban flood warning. Having the Dorple radar based precipitation estimation as the input, taking the inundation water depth as the evaluation index derived from the distributed urban flood forecasting model, this method fulfilled the high resolution and comprehension in urban flood forecasting. The method can evaluate the warning index both in currently observed and forecasted evaluation index, and increasing the forecasting lead-time. To evaluate two flood events occurred in recent years using this method, the results prove that the method is reasonable and could be applied to real-time operation.